Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Stock Valuations - What's Going On?


These are the top 10 companies ranked by Current Market Capitalization (U.S.$ millions)

RankCompanyMarket CapCountry
1Apple Inc.$913,221UNITED STATES
2Alphabet Inc$806,532UNITED STATES
3Amazon.com, Inc.$764,352UNITED STATES
4Microsoft Corporation$743,338UNITED STATES
5Tencent Holdings Limited$540,638CHINA
6Facebook Incorporation$538,278UNITED STATES
7Berkshire Hathaway Inc.$525,693UNITED STATES
8JPMorgan Chase & Co.$404,322UNITED STATES
9Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd$368,448CHINA
10Johnson & Johnson$358,922UNITED STATES


Review this list of the Top 10 Companies by market capitalization and you will see that five of them are in Technology. If you are not familiar with the Alphabet name above it is the "Google" group.

The Top Company in the world  by revenue some $550 billion for 2016 was Wal*Mart Stores Inc. which happens to be in 24th place with an estimated market capitalization of some $220 billion.

I'm not a stock analyst but i don't understand the logic here unless the expectation is that Wal*Mart will fail in the short term while Apple will continue to soar. The reality is that there is more risk to Apple being "knocked-off" by a competitor or a new entrant into the market with superior technology. There is already a known risk that  cell-phones can lead to cancer. Also, Samsung is a formidable competitor that challenges Apple and may surpass the American company. Do your remember the Blackberry from Research in Motion that was once the leader in the market-place.

Wal*Mart is also under extreme challenge by Amazon and is suffering some hits in the e-commerce division but you can be sure that Wal*Mart has the muscle and ability to "fix" it's internet business and take the game to Amazon. I don't think i would bet against Wal*Mart long term. Wal*Mart needs leadership to take out Amazon - pay the big money and recruit as necessary from Amazon.

          What does surprise or should i say shock me is to see a fairly useless company like Facebook on the list of Top 10 Companies. They have no product or content to sell to consumers. They can only survive by remaining a free service provider to the world. Yes the have over a billion members but think about what would happen if them implemented a small charge for their service. People would leave in droves.There is no way you could convince me to invest any of my money in their stock. Think about it - what is their offering to the market place.



Another surprising name to see on the list of the Top 20 is AliBaba. What they do can easily be replicated and probably will be in the near future. Alibaba has no inventory. They have created a specialty service that plays to the Chinese market. How long before the Chinese government takes it over.


Invest your money wisely and due your due diligence to make sure you want to risk your money on some of these technology companies that may not have the staying power for the long term. We saw what happened to all the dot com companies in the past - they were obliterated. 


Two other technology companies worth keeping an eye on are Airbnb and Uber. 


 Airbnb has become the world's largest accommodation provider, which owns on real estate. I would expect that the Hotel and Travel industry will find a way to compete more effectively with consumers. Why not become an affiliate of a well know brand and compete against Airbnb.




Uber has become the world's largest taxi company and food delivery service, but owns no vehicles. Popular competitors like "Skip the Dishes" and "Lyft" have already emerged. Just like Uber can deliver meals it's working on delivering packages.


What i do know is that concepts that were only dreams have become billion dollar  businesses and they did not require any hard assets other than technology to do so. Interestingly, high tech companies like Apple and Microsoft have understood that you need more than technology to survive for the long term. You need both software and products to capture both personal and business customers. 

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